We think about functions of danger management utilizing a historic example of techniques to estimate of the threat of sea pirate’s attacks, the so-called Bernoulli's and Columbus' methods. 250 years ago, Bernoulli discovered a way to lower the insurance coverage tariff at insurance coverage of merchant. Utilizing low tariff, he drew the customers, and due to the huge variety of customers he might attain enough precision in the estimation of possibility of loss of the goods or the vessel, and with the low insurance coverage tariff he might get excellent revenue. 250 years previously Columbus began browsing away to India. For his ships, along with for the merchant ships of Bernoulli's time, the primary hazard was the pirates. The possibility of an attack of pirates was high, however, whether it was needed for Columbus to understand the value of this likelihood? Columbus geared up the ships with rectangle-shaped sails of the optimum location. He lost the maneuverability, however, this basically increased speed of caravan. On the 2nd day of exploration a pirate cruising vessel approached Columbus' ships, nevertheless, some days later, it dragged hopelessly. It is essential to see, that the pirate ships had higher maneuverability than the trading ones and high speed. Their sails were universal, adjusted to combat male oeuvre, and had no such big location as sails of Columbus' ships. The provided realities from history highlight 2 methods to the danger estimate. Technique (Bernoulli) presumes that procedure, which failure threat is required to approximate, cannot be adjusted or it is not managed knowingly. 2nd technique (Columbus) applies to procedures which failure danger needs to be decreased ad infinitum by suitable modification. Bernoulli's method does not require a financial investment of loan and efforts to the improvement of procedure, which failure danger is approximated. It is the passive monetary method. Irreversible upgrading takes place because a brand-new procedure is created instead of not successful procedure.
The method applies to procedures, where the failure expenses are lower than those of the procedure modification. This technique is problematic, however, costs for its awareness grow linearly depending upon intricacy and risk of the procedure, and expenses from the failure of complex and harmful procedures grow in geometrical Management and danger development. Therefore, with some intricacy and threat of procedure, the technique of Columbus seems financially sensible. Nuclear insurance coverage swimming pool effectively shows absurdness of Bernoulli's technique to the insurance coverage of nuclear and radioactive hazardous items: even for a century it is difficult to create the swimming pool, enough for the liquidation of consequences of the failure of Chernobyl's type, as the business are unable to pay insurance coverage tariffs.
The goal of the insurer to be prepared to the failure of Chernobyl's type is nothing but an effort to fix the Columbus' issue by of Bernoulli's techniques. Bernoulli's method applies to its initial type, if: insurance coverage cases come regularly, values of insurance coverage premiums are not considerable, insurance coverage tariffs do not constrain financially the activity of the insured business and cover costs of the insurance provider, which can work successfully; insurance coverage cases come hardly ever, values of insurance coverage premiums huge enough, however insurance coverage tariffs for the a great deal of the very same things of insurance coverage cover costs of the insurance provider, which can work for long and efficiently; insurance coverage cases are featuring any duration, however, the size of insurance coverage premiums modifications over a wide variety and from time to time can put the insurer on the face of the crash.
In this scenario work of the insurance provider in Bernoulli's method presumes inescapable insolvency when the most severe insurance coverage cases take place. Application of Columbus' technique in the insurance coverage of unsafe and pricey things gets rid of the possibility of the look of failures such as Chernobyl.